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Juan Pablo Montoya thinks Red Bull’s chances of keeping Max Verstappen beyond the 2026 F1 season are “very slim”, as he is “already” in talks to join Mercedes from 2027.
Verstappen is regularly linked with a move from Red Bull to Mercedes, as Silver Arrows team principal Toto Wolff is a huge fan of the Dutchman and has long wanted to sign him. Red Bull have to date been able to repel Mercedes’ interest, but Montoya expects the clock is ticking.
Mercedes re-signed George Russell and Andrea Kimi Antonelli to new contracts last October after Verstappen could not break his Red Bull contract through 2028. He had to be fourth or lower in the 2025 drivers’ standings at the summer break to have the right to leave Red Bull.
Yet while Antonelli’s Mercedes contract runs through 2029, Russell has to hit performance-based clauses to trigger his extension for 2027. And as Verstappen only has to rank third or lower in the F1 drivers’ standings at the 2026 summer break, a deal could now materialise.
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Juan Pablo Montoya thinks Red Bull’s chances of keeping Max Verstappen are ‘very slim’
Wolff has publicly ruled out Mercedes signing Verstappen for 2027, noting earlier this week that he “could not be happier” with Russell and Antonelli. Yet Montoya suspects that Wolff will be speaking with Verstappen, as he cannot see a scenario where Red Bull can keep him.
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Ex-Williams and McLaren F1 driver Montoya suspects that Verstappen will leave Red Bull no matter what the team try, like letting him race in the Nurburgring 24 Hours. The 28-year-old returned to the Nordschleife last week for an NLS2 race as a warm-up to May’s classic race.
Montoya told AS: “I think Red Bull are in a position where whatever Max wants, they’ll say yes to make sure they don’t lose him.
“Now, I actually believe that whatever happens, they’re going to lose him. Max is going to want to be at Mercedes next year… I think that conversation has already started.
“Last year, [their talks] were not even over yet. But I wouldn’t be surprised if the chances of Max being at Red Bull next year are very slim.”
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Wolff confirmed that Mercedes spoke with Verstappen’s manager in 2025 to stay in the loop about his situation when it was possible that he could terminate his Red Bull contract early. Verstappen was only 15 points ahead of Russell in P4 in the standings at the summer break.
With the early dominance that Mercedes are enjoying in 2026, with Russell and Antonelli at the top of the standings after winning the Australian Grand Prix and Shanghai Sprint and the Chinese Grand Prix respectively, Verstappen may easily be able to end his contract this term.
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