How ‘three seasons’ of Mercedes set-up experiments have hurt Lewis Hamilton in qualifying this year

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Lewis Hamilton has already lost the 2024 qualifying battle with Mercedes teammate George Russell. Russell wrapped up the head-to-head in Azerbaijan with seven races to spare.

While Hamilton did beat his fellow countryman in Singapore, the deficit still stands at 13-5. Nico Rosberg is the only other driver to defeat him on a Saturday over a full season.

Rosberg beat Hamilton 12-7 in 2014, though the latter still managed to win the world championship. The Briton shaded two-time world champion Fernando Alonso 9-8 in his rookie year, and swept Jenson Button across their three seasons together at McLaren.

Russell’s one-lap pace has been a problem for the seven-time world champion ever since he arrived in 2022. He was immediately closer than many expected, outqualifying Hamilton nine times that year.

They finished level last season at 11 apiece, and now Russell has established a clear advantage. He’ll be expected to lead Mercedes next season when 18-year-old Kimi Antonelli arrives.

One may assume, given that he’s 39, that Hamilton is simply exhibiting signs of decline. But a report from Brazilian outlet UOL offers a different explanation.

Lewis Hamilton may not know the limit of his Mercedes

‘For much of the last three seasons’, Hamilton has been testing ‘various solutions’ to make the Mercedes work. As one of the most experienced drivers in F1, the team have naturally looked to him rather than Russell.

Mercedes have won four races and taken four pole positions during the ground-effect era, excelling only in their car’s narrow working window. Since the start of 2022, Hamilton has been trying to find a set-up that maximises their potential.

The inevitable result of making changes ‘all the time’ is that he finds it ‘harder to know the car’s limit’. It’s worth noting that Mercedes have stopped experimenting in the ‘last third of the season’, so if there’s no noticeable improvement before Abu Dhabi, this explanation may not suffice.

Previous reports have claimed Hamilton is struggling with the Pirelli tyres. Unlike Russell, he may not be able to switch them on when the track is fully gripped up.

Why Toto Wolff is optimistic Kimi Antonelli can beat Lewis Hamilton next year

The true test for Hamilton will be his 2025 match-up with Charles Leclerc. Leclerc’s tally of 26 pole positions, without ever having a truly dominant car, shows that he’s one of the fastest qualifiers in recent F1 history.

David Coulthard expects Leclerc to be quicker than Hamilton next year. However, he believes the veteran will use his renowned racecraft to score more victories.

Antonelli’s promotion will also offer a more accurate picture of Russell’s pace. If he blitzes the youngster, it will enhance his reputation, but if they’re unexpectedly close, some may wonder why Hamilton hasn’t decisively beaten the 26-year-old.

Toto Wolff thinks Antonelli and Mercedes can beat Hamilton in the standings next year. They’ll benefit, he says, from his injection of youthful vigour.