How Carlos Sainz’s Williams deal changes Mercedes dynamic for Kimi Antonelli

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After several months of speculation, Carlos Sainz has finally decided to join Williams on a multi-year deal from the 2025 Formula 1 season.

The Spaniard has been a driver in demand since Ferrari announced it would replace him with Lewis Hamilton, with Williams team principal James Vowles admitting that it took several months of convincing Sainz that their project is the most competitive from his options.

It will be the first time he has gone to a team that is not as competitive as his current one, largely because there are limited spaces in the top four teams.

Williams has enjoyed a resurgence back to the midfield of the grid in recent years, having finished last year’s Constructors’ Championship in seventh place. However, after successfully lobbying for an increase in the Capital Expenditure rules, Vowles has big ambitions to reinvest in the team’s facilities to get it on par with Red Bull and Mercedes.

Currently, Williams is several years behind the teams it is competing against due to a lack of investment over the years. This showed earlier in the season when it had to withdraw Logan Sargeant at the Australian Grand Prix due to a lack of spare parts.

It might take a while before they can credibly challenge for podiums, but Sainz is at least showing how valuable his contributions can be for teams further up the grid. This will be important for next season, particularly for one entity that has turned around its fortunes of late.

READ MORE: F1 2025 driver line-up with every team’s confirmed entry for the grid

Mercedes endure worst start to a season in six years

Mercedes started off the season bullish about its prospects having endured two years with cars that failed to meet their high performance standards.

Like every team, they have been chasing that sweet spot between high downforce and low ride height. The W13 and W14 both suffered from too much downforce that overloaded the complicated rear suspension, creating the ‘bouncing’ effect that makes it hard to drive the car at speed.

Mercedes has worked hard with the W15 to correct the problem and reached a breakthrough at this year’s Canadian Grand Prix. The new front wing and floor package addressed many of the problems they faced, and since then Mercedes has been on a run of competitive races.

It became the pivotal moment for the team in 2024, having endured its worst start to a season in six years having only scored 52 points after five races.

How the new Mercedes dynamic could impact Kimi Antonelli

Hamilton’s departure to Ferrari made sense as they looked like the most improved, while Mercedes appeared to continue its dire form after yet another car concept switch.

There was much speculation over who would replace the seven-time World Champion, but it seemed clear the team was focused on bringing through 17-year-old Andrea Kimi Antonelli having fast-tracked him to Formula 2 this season.

It was a rough start for Antonelli in the F1 feeder series, but the idea of promoting him to Mercedes while they were performing badly made sense as it would mean he did not have to deliver immediately on high expectations.

READ MORE: Who is Mercedes academy driver Andrea Kimi Antonelli? Everything to know

Now that Mercedes has turned things around, so has the dynamic. The Silver Arrows has won three out of the last four races and if this continues after the summer break, Antonelli will need to deliver immediately in 2025 as they chase a constructors title.

Conveniently, Antonelli’s results have picked up after a rocky start with victories in the Silverstone and Hungary sprint races. He also impressed Vowles and Toto Wolff with a move he did during the recent F2 sprint race at Spa. It is unlikely that he will win the F2 title, but drivers have been promoted to F1 before without championship success.

If Antonelli struggles in the first half of the season with Mercedes, there could always be the option for a swap with their engine customer. Sainz reportedly has a clause in his £8.5 million contract that enables him to leave Williams if a drive at Red Bull or Mercedes is available.

It is a win-win scenario for Wolff and Vowles, all while Christian Horner puts his vote of confidence in Sergio Perez to deliver a seventh Constructors’ title to Red Bull.