Ferrari are ‘in danger’ of missing Q3 at the Australian Grand Prix due to horsepower issue

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Ferrari and Mercedes headline the second week of Formula 1’s 2026 launch season. Red Bull were the first to reveal their new livery last Thursday.

Title favourites Mercedes will showcase their design on 22 January, with Ferrari following one day later. The Scuderia enter the year under more pressure than any other team after a winless 2025 campaign.

There were some rumours that Ferrari would have to postpone their launch date, but they will proceed with their winter schedule as planned. The concern isn’t so much whether the car will be ready, but how fast it will be.

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F1 pundit Ralf Schumacher believes the 2026 Ferrari will be a ‘disaster’ based on the early rumblings, but that theory will only be put to the test during the first public testing in Bahrain next month.

Ferrari could be F1’s fifth-fastest team at the Australian Grand Prix

One of the biggest news stories this winter has been Mercedes finding a ‘loophole’ in F1’s new engine rules. Rivals say they will exceed the maximum fuel compression ratio on track, but comply with FIA checks when the car is stationary.

It’s believed that Red Bull are also using the trick, but not to the same extent. As newcomers to the engine scene, they aren’t expecting to be on the level of established manufacturers straight away.

But Mercedes, and the three teams they supply (McLaren, Williams and Alpine), could conceivably gain up to 13 horsepower through the higher ratio, equivalent to around four-tenths per lap.

According to Top Speed columnist Umberto Zapelloni, this puts Ferrari at risk of being F1’s fifth-fastest team when the season begins in Australia. If so, the drivers will have to nail their laps to even reach Q3, with P9 and P10 potentially their ceiling.

Ferrari to lodge an FIA protest after Melbourne?

Clearly, it would be a disaster for Ferrari if they are a midfield team at the start of the new regulations. It would raise serious questions over Fred Vasseur’s position and Charles Leclerc’s future.

Ferrari engineers will need months to replicate Mercedes’ methods if they are deemed legal by the FIA. The mistake they made was not identifying the opportunity earlier.

There will be a meeting at the private test in Barcelona next week where both sides will have an opportunity to argue their cases. Ferrari have formed an alliance with Audi and Honda to push for a ban, but that won’t arrive until the summer break at the earliest.

It has been reported that Ferrari could protest the results of the Australian GP, but that will depend on the outcome of the meeting.