F1 experts share Australian Grand Prix predictions with George Russell backed for Melbourne victory

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It’s time for the opening race of the 2026 Formula 1 season, with attention firmly on the Australian Grand Prix. Our F1 experts have shared their predictions for the race in Melbourne, including who they believe will take victory.

Lando Norris begins the year as the reigning world champion after securing the title following a three-way battle with McLaren teammate Oscar Piastri and Red Bull’s Max Verstappen.

Mercedes enter the new campaign as favourites following the biggest regulation overhaul in Formula 1 history, which includes lighter cars and a new 50-50 hybrid power unit.

With the Brackley-based team widely tipped to dominate in 2026, their more experienced driver George Russell is currently the favourite to claim the drivers’ championship.

As the race weekend gets underway at the Albert Park Circuit, our writers have made their predictions for the Australian Grand Prix.

Read More: F1 experts predict the 2026 Formula 1 season including whether George Russell can win the title

Who is taking pole position for the 2026 Australian Grand Prix?

Ben Evans – George Russell: I think we’ll finally see the true potential of that Mercedes in qualifying, and Russell is the most likely driver to take full advantage.

David Comerford – George Russell: He’s my favourite for this weekend and I’m very confident he ends up on pole. It’s just a question of what the margin will be.

Ashley Hambly – George Russell: He will snatch pole on Saturday afternoon. It should be a fascinating shootout in the end, but the W17 seemed to be quite handy in the qualifying simulations from testing.

Kyle Archer – George Russell: Their F1 rivals left Bahrain believing Mercedes sandbagged during testing. But the Silver Arrows will not hide the W17’s actual performance levels during qualifying for the 2026 Australian Grand Prix, when George Russell gets pole position by at least 0.3s over P2.

Aaditya Krishnamurthy – George Russell: Mercedes’ strength ahead of the new season can’t be understated, and Russell is likely to get it done in qualifying.

Tyler Rowlinson – Kimi Antonelli: The consensus is Mercedes will be top dog in Melbourne, and Russell seems the easy candidate for pole. However, I think his young teammate will put up much more of a fight than some may think, and like his performance on debut last year, he’ll hugely impress with his maiden F1 pole position.

Rebecca Braybrook – Lewis Hamilton: Ferrari and Mercedes are being tipped as the teams to beat this year, and if Lewis Hamilton has the confidence, there’s every chance he could be back fighting at the front.

Luke Newman – Charles Leclerc: I think it will be a weekend dominated by Ferrari and Mercedes, but I think Leclerc will edge his way onto pole position this weekend.

Which drivers will stand on the podium at the Australian Grand Prix?

Ben Evans – Russell, Antonelli, Piastri: Mercedes could be the team to beat in the early stages of the season, and if that’s the case, then Antonelli should have enough to fend off the rest of the pack. Piastri will finally end the Australian driver curse in Melbourne!

David Comerford – Russell, Norris, Leclerc: Russell will win, with Lando Norris finishing second and Charles Leclerc third. That means the Aussie curse will continue for Oscar Piastri, unfortunately.

Ashley Hambly – Leclerc, Russell, Hamilton: I just think the Monegasque will have adapted to the SF-26 an inch faster than his teammate, who will still be in contention for a podium. I also back Russell to convert his pole position into a podium.

Kyle Archer – Russell, Antonelli, Leclerc: Mercedes will start the 2026 F1 regulations cycle with a one-two finish in the Australian Grand Prix, as George Russell converts the first pole position of the year in front of Andrea Kimi Antonelli. Ferrari ace Charles Leclerc will join the Silver Arrows stars on the Albert Park podium, but the Monegasque will likely come home far back (by at least 25s).

Aaditya Krishnamurthy – Piastri, Russell, Verstappen: Can’t see Piastri having a bad home race two years in a row, even if he doesn’t get pole position, he will try to have the drive of his career to win. Verstappen will try to get out of the blocks early, but George Russell, yet again, will play spoiler for him.

Tyler Rowlinson – Russell, Piastri, Antonelli: With my pole prediction being said, I don’t think Antonelli holds on for the win. I think Russell’s experience will shine through and he’ll get the better of him for the win. I’m also backing Piastri for a home podium and to kick off the season in style.

Rebecca Braybrook – Leclerc, Hamilton, Russell: Hamilton could start the race on pole, but Ferrari looks capable of locking out the front row, with Leclerc potentially coming out on top once the race gets underway. If Mercedes’ pace is as strong as expected, Russell should also be in the mix for a podium in the opening race.

Luke Newman – Russell, Leclerc, Antonelli: Despite a pole position for Ferrari, I think Mercedes are the team to beat this weekend, allowing Russell to take victory, Antonelli will join him, but Leclerc will ruin a potential Mercedes 1-2.

Which driver do you think will be the biggest flop in Australia?

Ben Evans – Esteban Ocon: Just to avoid saying Aston Martin again, especially if they don’t make it onto the track, I think Ocon has a really tough job up against Bearman this season.

David Comerford – Lewis Hamilton: Unfortunately, I’m going to go with Hamilton. I don’t buy the narrative that the rule changes will arrest his decline. I expect to see another big gap to Leclerc.

Ashley Hambly – Oscar Piastri: I think the home Grand Prix curse that Daniel Ricciardo once held may come back with a vengeance for Oscar Piastri. The Australian suffered some terrible luck last year, and I can see it returning again this year, too.

Kyle Archer – Sergio Perez: Ignoring Fernando Alonso and Lance Stroll owing to the problems that Aston Martin and Honda are encountering, the biggest flop in the 2026 Australian Grand Prix will be Sergio Perez as the Mexican makes his F1 comeback with Cadillac. Perez will qualify last (ahead of the Aston Martin duo) and then fail to finish an underwhelming race on Sunday.

Aaditya Krishnamurthy – Lando Norris: The curse of the Australian GP winner is going to continue, and I expect, for whatever reason, that Norris will end with a DNF.

Tyler Rowlinson – Arivd Lindblad: Melbourne was a graveyard for rookies in 2025, and if it rains, Lindblad could be in serious trouble. Even if it doesn’t, I’m not too convinced by Racing Bulls this season, so I think F1’s only rookie in 2026 will have it tough on debut.

Rebecca Braybrook – Sergio Perez: I agree with Kyle that Perez could end up being the biggest flop at the Australian Grand Prix. Following a year away from F1 and a tough end to his Red Bull stint, it may take some time before we see the Checo of old again.

Luke Newman – Franco Colapinto: Trying to steer away from Aston Martin as they are the obvious answer, I will go with Franco Colapinto as I think he will really struggle against Gasly this year, now that the Alpine looks more competitive.

Will anyone suffer the same fate as these disastrous F1 cars at this year’s Australian GP? 😬

Let us know in the comments below!

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Which team beside Aston Martin will struggle the most?

Ben Evans – Cadillac: A predictable answer, but I think getting two cars on track for the first time, and dealing with time sensitive sessions such as qualifying will prove to be very difficult.

David Comerford – Williams: Let’s say Williams, even if they’ve been playing down expectations. We could see one of the drivers out in Q1. Audi and Cadillac won’t score points either but that’s to be expected.

Ashley Hambly – Audi: I imagine Audi will also experience some teething issues with their new F1 engine at the 2026 season-opener. While I do think that they will come on strong in the latter half of the year, the first few race weekends may prove to be a bit difficult for F1’s newest German constructor.

Kyle Archer – Cadillac: They may not be the worst team at the start of the 2026 F1 season given Aston Martin’s problems. But the American squad will only be the 10th-best out of the 11 outfits in the Australian Grand Prix, and simply aim to avoid finishing multiple laps down.

Aaditya Krishnamurthy – Haas: Outside of Aston Martin, who are expected to DNF, I expect Cadillac to have a little bit of beginner’s luck in Australia, while Haas will struggle to get things going, likely due to a strategy mistake.

Tyler Rowlinson – Racing Bulls: I’m not including the new teams in Audi and Cadillac, because I think simply finishing the race is a win for them. As I alluded to with my biggest flop of the weekend, Racing Bulls do not convince me much going into the season. I think they’ll be in for a miserable weekend in Australia.

Rebecca Braybrook – Williams: I agree with Tyler that the two new teams shouldn’t be judged too quickly given the steep learning curve they face. Instead, I think Williams could struggle the most in Australia. They’ve had their issues, and while the opening race might be tough, I expect them to make progress as the season develops.

Luke Newman – Cadillac: Since Aston Martin may not even make it onto the grid, I will go with Cadillac. The pressure of a Grand Prix weekend will be a lot more difficult for the new team when compared to testing.