F1 experts predict the Hungarian Grand Prix from Lewis Hamilton’s chances to win to biggest surprise

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Budapest awaits Formula 1 this weekend as the 2026 Hungarian Grand Prix draws the first half of the season to a close, with Ferrari widely expected to be the team to beat.

But the Scuderia should not expect everything to go their way at the Hungaroring, despite it being one of Lewis Hamilton’s best F1 circuits. Hamilton has won the Hungarian GP a record eight times to date, but he has not won the race since 2020 while still racing with Mercedes.

Hamilton’s most recent Hungarian GP win in 2020 also marks Mercedes’ most recent victory in Budapest. But the Silver Arrows return to the Hungaroring in 2026 on the back of Andrea Kimi Antonelli winning the Belgian Grand Prix for his sixth win this term from his sixth pole.

Ferrari’s recent upgrades could offer Hamilton a chance to win the Hungarian GP for a ninth time in 2026, though. The SF-26 has regularly been the quickest car on the grid through the corners this season, and Ferrari’s array of upgrades in Barcelona made it a race-winning car.

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Upgrades will be the talk of the paddock in Budapest, too, as Aston Martin are finally set to debut their B-spec AMR26 in their desperate bid to turn their troubled season around. The Silverstone squad have qualified last in 21st and 22nd for each of the past four Grands Prix.

So, with that in mind, F1 Oversteer’s expert team of writers share their predictions for the Hungarian GP – from which driver will win and who will take pole to the biggest surprise…

Which driver will score pole position for the 2026 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix?

Kyle Archer – Kimi Antonelli: “The hype ahead of the Hungarian Grand Prix is that Ferrari will have the car to beat in Budapest. But it also has to be noted that Andrea Kimi Antonelli scored pole for the Monaco Grand Prix in June and then produced a flawless drive to win in the Principality. So, the Italian will believe he can take his seventh pole of 2026 in Hungary.”

David Comerford – Charles Leclerc: “I know the Hungaroring is traditionally Lewis Hamilton territory, but Charles Leclerc has turned his form around and I think he might just edge the Ferrari battle in qualifying here. Mercedes’ chassis should not be underestimated, but this looks like one of the best tracks of the year for Ferrari.”

READ MORE: How to watch the 2026 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix, plus the weather forecast

Ashley Hambley – Lewis Hamilton: “It’s hard to look past the eight-time Hungarian Grand Prix winner this weekend, even more so now that Lewis Hamilton has a Ferrari package that he’s comfortable with. It will also be important for Hamilton to regain some momentum in the teammate battle after being out-qualified by Charles Leclerc twice in succession.”

Which driver will win the Hungarian GP, and who will join them on the podium?

Kyle Archer – Antonelli, Leclerc, Norris: “The Hungarian Grand Prix may see the top three that the Belgian Grand Prix should have seen last Sunday, with Lando Norris joining Andrea Kimi Antonelli and Charles Leclerc on the podium. McLaren’s strategy cost Norris at Spa, on top of the 10-place grid penalty he served for a new battery, and he will want to hit back.”

David Comerford – Leclerc, Hamilton, Antonelli: “I think Charles Leclerc will lead a Ferrari one-two finish, but Kimi Antonelli will also challenge for the win. If we get a result like this, we can look forward to (or dread) weeks of Ferrari title hype during the summer break.”

Ashley Hambley – Hamilton, Antonelli, Leclerc: “Kimi Antonelli has been demonstrating that he can never be ruled out for a race win through his blistering pace towards the end of a Grand Prix. So, he will certainly be a thorn in Lewis Hamilton’s side in Hungary. Charles Leclerc will also be in contention, but I think he’ll just have to settle for third place.”

Who will be the biggest surprise during the 2026 Hungarian GP weekend?

Kyle Archer – Alex Albon: “Williams have endured yet more woe in recent weeks amid an underwhelming start to the 2026 regulations for the Grove squad. Alex Albon has also not scored a point in any of the past four rounds stretching back to his P8 in Monaco, but that run can end this weekend as the Hungaroring could help Williams hide their deficiencies.”

David Comerford – Nico Hulkenberg: “Somehow, Nico Hulkenberg still hasn’t scored a point this year, but he has been very unfortunate (finishing 11th or 12th four times).

“Gabriel Bortoleto has put Audi back in the points at the last couple of races, but I think it will be his teammate’s turn here in Hungary. I could see Hulkenberg nicking a top-six result if some of the top teams run into trouble.”

Ashley Hambley – Aston Martin: “Unfortunately, I think the struggling Aston Martin team will be the biggest surprise for all the wrong reasons in Hungary. They’re banking everything on this ‘B-spec’ chassis that is set to debut in Budapest, but I really cannot see them moving up too many positions in the pecking order.”

Which driver will have the worst weekend ahead of F1’s summer break?

Kyle Archer – Lewis Hamilton: “Many might expect Ferrari driver Lewis Hamilton to win the Hungarian Grand Prix, but he might actually suffer the worst weekend by anyone this week.

“Should Hamilton fail to get on the Hungaroring podium, it would be a gut punch for him to hit the summer break failing to meet what will be the smallest target for Ferrari this week.”

David Comerford – Fernando Alonso: “This will not be because of Fernando Alonso’s own performance in Hungary, but because Aston Martin’s updates will underwhelm. I just can’t make myself believe they’ll gain the amount of time they need to challenge anyone but Cadillac. It would need to be one of the best upgrades in recent F1 history.”

Ashley Hambley – George Russell: “Another DNF for George Russell in 2026 at Spa means the Briton is now in serious danger of falling out of title contention altogether. Anything short of a victory in Hungary would be another massive blow for Russell, and I just can’t see it happening for him this weekend.”