F1 experts predict final 2025 driver moves as Haas announce Esteban Ocon signing

Follow us on Google Discover

Haas have confirmed the signing of Alpine driver Esteban Ocon to partner Oliver Bearman in 2025, so F1 Oversteer’s expert writers predict the final driver moves.

The grid for the 2025 Formula 1 season is quickly taking shape with only five drives now left to get. A sixth seat could also become available should Red Bull opt to pay off Sergio Perez, despite only confirming the 34-year-old’s two-year contract extension for the team in June.

Alpine also confirmed in June that Ocon was to depart the Renault-owned team at the end of the 2024 season. So, taking advantage of the situation, Haas have signed Ocon on a multi-year contract to join Bearman. He will join as Kevin Magnussen and Nico Hulkenberg leave.

Hulkenberg secured his spot on the 2025 grid in April by signing a multi-year contract to join Audi via Sauber. Haas also put Magnussen on the market in July, joining Carlos Sainz, Valtteri Bottas, Zhou Guanyu and Daniel Ricciardo as F1’s current drivers out of contract after 2024.

READ MORE: F1 2025 driver line-up with every team’s confirmed entry for the grid

So, with Haas signing Ocon on a multi-year contract to partner Bearman, our expert team of writers at F1 Oversteer have predicted the remaining driver moves to finalise the 2025 grid…

Kyle Archer: Carlos Sainz to join Alpine, Liam Lawson gets his F1 debut with Audi

Mercedes hold the keys to the 2025 driver market as Toto Wolff continues to weigh up who should replace Lewis Hamilton. The 39-year-old signing a multi-year contract with Ferrari in February left Carlos Sainz without a seat. But Sainz is not the kingpin of F1’s driver market.

Instead, the final driver moves for 2025 hinge on if Mercedes can tempt Max Verstappen to quit Red Bull. Yet it is unlikely that Wolff will land the 26-year-old, even with Red Bull losing some of their dominance. So, Mercedes are likely to gift Andrea Kimi Antonelli his F1 debut.

READ MORE: Who is Mercedes academy driver Andrea Kimi Antonelli? Everything to know

Sainz, meanwhile, must decide if he is prepared to sign up for a multi-year project with Audi and join Sauber in 2025 or take a step back and join Williams or Alpine. But the Ferrari exile may have his eyes on Sergio Perez’s uncertain future at Red Bull, who have spoken to Sainz.

A return to Alpine seems most likely for Sainz, who previously raced for the Enstone team as Renault, though. As for Audi/Sauber, the most likely star to join Hulkenberg in 2025 could be Liam Lawson as it would surprise no one if Red Bull give Daniel Ricciardo another year at RB.

That leaves Williams to round off the 2025 grid with Logan Sargeant failing to do enough for a third year. The Grove squad could even be the next Formula 1 team to confirm their driver line-up for 2025 as Valtteri Bottas wants Williams to finalise a contract in the summer break.

Kyle Archer

Ben Evans: Sergio Perez to Audi, Isack Hadjar makes his F1 debut at RB

It appears to be a two-way race between Andrea Kimi Antonelli and Carlos Sainz to join Mercedes. And the longer the wait goes on, the more the pressure might build on the Spaniard to commit to a team.

However, if Mercedes believe they’ve got a car capable of winning races in 2025, then securing a short-term deal with Sainz seems like the most likely scenario.

After Williams run out of patience with Sainz, despite appearing desperate to hire the three-time Grand Prix winner, I can’t look past a return to the team for Valtteri Bottas. The Finn’s performance is hard to judge this year given Sauber’s struggles.

But Bottas still has a lot to offer Williams, would be a strong teammate for Alex Albon and has a significant media and commercial presence, which will help a team always looking for more funding.

Flavio Briatore’s return to Alpine has seen the Renault-owned team make a strong push for Sainz. But as I believe Mercedes will eventually bring him in ahead of Antonelli, then dipping into the academy looks like their most likely solution.

While Kush Maini is doing a decent job in F2 and Mick Schumacher is desperate to make a return to the Formula 1 grid, Jack Doohan looks set to be handed a chance at Alpine in 2025 that few would have predicted at the start of the season.

All eyes are on the summer break and whether Sergio Perez survives at Red Bull. There are two different scenarios that could play out based on the talks being held around the Mexican’s future after Spa.

If Perez survives, then Liam Lawson will replace Daniel Ricciardo at RB next year. However, if Perez leaves Red Bull, then all of a sudden there are several more moving parts.

In that scenario, I think Lawson steps straight up to the senior Red Bull team and Isack Hadjar will join Yuki Tsunoda at RB to become one of the most fiery pairings in F1 history.

Sauber failing to score a point after 13 rounds puts Audi on the back foot in the driver market. The instability at Audi also dampens some of the excitement around joining a new works team in 2026.

Sauber do not appear to have much faith in Theo Pourchaire and Zane Maloney is unlikely to earn a promotion unless he can somehow win the F2 championship. If Perez doesn’t survive at Red Bull, Audi could do a lot worse than offer him one last chance alongside Hulkenberg.

Ben Evans

David Comerford: Andrea Kimi Antonelli to Mercedes, Sergio Perez to Audi/Sauber

To begin with Mercedes, Andrea Kimi Antonelli’s recent wins in Formula 2 may be enough to sway Toto Wolff. That will leave Carlos Sainz choosing between the bottom three teams, and I expect he’ll go with Alpine knowing that they’ll soon be racing with Mercedes power units.

Sergio Perez might last until the end of the season at Red Bull. But that speaks more to the question marks around their alternatives than Red Bull’s confidence in his driving. Still, it’s hard to imagine him producing the kind of consistency needed to keep that seat for 2025.

That will open the door for Liam Lawson to join Red Bull, with Daniel Ricciardo surviving alongside Yuki Tsunoda at RB. Sauber/Audi will likely snap up Perez because both parties may find themselves with few alternatives.

This just leaves the final Williams seat, with Valtteri Bottas the obvious candidate. Logan Sargeant and Kevin Magnussen will both lose their places on the F1 grid.

David Comerford

Rory Mitchell: Valtteri Bottas to return to Williams, Alpine give Jack Doohan his F1 debut

The driver market in 2024 was entirely to be expected after zero movements last winter. Lewis Hamilton was the main catalyst that set off much of the frenzy, which has now settled down as more pieces fall into place with the news that Esteban Ocon will move to Haas.

READ MORE: Everything you need to know about Lewis Hamilton’s move to Ferrari in 2025

This leaves spaces at Mercedes, Williams, Sauber, RB and Alpine. By all accounts, it looks likely that Andrea Kimi Antonelli will join Mercedes as Max Verstappen looks nailed on to stay at Red Bull (and is probably far too expensive to buy out).

Williams will likely see Valtteri Bottas join as he works for his old boss James Vowles. Audi also seemingly does not have the Finn high up on its driver list to stay at Sauber in 2025.

Carlos Sainz is a curious case as he appears to have offers from three teams. With the recent management change at the top of Audi’s F1 project with Mattia Binotto taking charge, it could be enough to make him want to switch.

Although with no investment at Sauber for the 2025 season and uncertainty over Audi’s competitiveness in 2026, Sainz is likely looking for a stop-gap. Perhaps even a sabbatical? This enables Audi/Sauber to keep hold of Zhou Guanyu for another year.

Alpine seem keen on giving Jack Doohan an F1 debut having run him in a testing programme this year. Flavio Briatore will no doubt be pulling the strings behind the scenes, so whether he can coup another star driver to join Pierre Gasly is one to watch. If Sergio Perez becomes a free agent, perhaps the Red Bull driver is the best fit for Alpine.

RB’s line-up appears to be dependent on Perez’s situation, too. If Red Bull decide to get rid of him after the summer break (which is looking likely), then Daniel Ricciardo looks like the alternative to slot in beside Verstappen.

That would free up a space for Red Bull to put Liam Lawson in at RB and fulfil all contractual obligations, which state he is guaranteed a 2025 drive otherwise he can join another team.

Rory Mitchell