307-race F1 team could make Carlos Sainz 2026 offer if their driver doesn’t perform next year

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Carlos Sainz has signed a multi-year deal to race for Williams from 2025. After spending nearly six months at the centre of F1’s driver market, he’s finally chosen his new team ahead of the summer break.

The move could go one of two ways. James Vowles will hope that Sainz is in it for the long haul, hauling Williams back to the sharp end of the F1 grid in conjunction with Alex Albon.

Alternatively, it may be a short to medium-term stay, with the Spaniard moving on again if a better opportunity arises. It’s unclear whether Sainz sees Williams as a stepping stone back to the front of the F1 grid, or whether he’s 100% invested in the Vowles project.

There’s doubt as to whether Sainz will race for a top team again, with one journalist suggesting that the big hitters have implicitly made their views on the 29-year-old clear in recent months. Mercedes are poised to sign 17-year-old Kimi Antonelli rather than the three-time race-winner.

In the case of Red Bull, it’s not purely a sporting decision. Christian Horner was wary of reigniting Sainz’s tense relationship with Max Verstappen, his first F1 teammate at Toro Rosso in 2015.

Aston Martin could also have been a strong bet with a view to their exclusive Honda tie-up in 2026. But two-time world champion Fernando Alonso extended his contract, and Lance Stroll is safe because his father Lawrence owns the team.

Mercedes see Carlos Sainz as 2026 back-up if Kimi Antonelli struggles

According to sport.de, there’s a scenario in which Sainz is on the move again at the end of 2025. It all depends on how Antonelli performs at Mercedes.

If the Italian doesn’t produce the results ‘Toto Wolff would like’, then the Mercedes boss could consider another driver change for 2026. Sainz is a ‘back-up’ option who may come under consideration.

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Vowles has already denied that Sainz has negotiated a ‘Mercedes clause’ allowing him to jump ship if the 307-race team approach him. But they could theoretically buy him out of his contract.

Of course, Verstappen is the driver who will truly dictate the market. Verstappen has the option to leave Red Bull ahead of 2026, and if he looks to activate it, then Wolff may devote all of his resources to signing him instead.

Damon Hill issues immediate verdict on Carlos Sainz joining Williams

Few would have expected Sainz to end up at Williams when news of his Ferrari exit first emerged. Based on the current standings, he’ll be dropping down six places.

While the Scuderia’s recent regression suggests they may struggle to compete for the title in 2025, they should be well-placed for 2026. And that will be a source of pain for their departing driver, who will justifiably feel that he’s done little wrong.

Nonetheless, Damon Hill is excited by a ‘very potent’ Williams line-up. Hill won his one and only world championship with the iconic team in 1996.

It’s doubtless one of the strongest combinations a midfield team has been able to field in recent years. And based on their initial interaction on social media, Sainz and Albon already share a good relationship.