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Mercedes are leading both Formula 1 world championships, but they have far from maximised their dominant package.
Kimi Antonelli heads a Mercedes one-two in the drivers’ standings, but Lewis Hamilton is only 32 points behind in third. A 78-point advantage over Ferrari in the constructors’ isn’t unassailable either.
A big part of Mercedes’ problem has been unreliability – Antonelli lost a likely win at Silverstone and a P2 in Barcelona, while George Russell retired from the lead in Canada – but neither driver has executed to their desired standard.
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Russell has already finished off the podium three times, including a disastrous P12 in Monaco. If Max Verstappen, widely regarded as the best driver on the grid, were driving the W17, one suspects his floor would be second place.
Incidentally, Antonelli has only come home outside the top two once – a P3 in Austria. Given that he was less than two seconds off the race win, one could argue that he cost himself maximum points in an erratic opening few laps where he left the track multiple times.
Likewise, Antonelli lost his temper in the Canada Sprint after claiming that Russell had pushed him off the track, which contributed to him losing second to Lando Norris. Penalties in the Shanghai and Miami Sprints also cost him points.
Martin Brundle says that Antonelli is still ‘wild’ at times, even if he has ‘incredible pace’, and Damon Hill agrees that Antonelli’s ‘weak spot’ is his ‘over-exuberance’.
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This can be put down to inexperience. He is only 19 years old, and this is his first shot at an F1 title.
But Russell is fortunate that he’s not up against a seasoned winner. If he was, his struggles adapting to the 2026 cars would have been punished even more forcefully.
Conversely, Hamilton has been rejuvenated by the regulation changes. Were Russell up against this version of the seven-time world champion, arguably a complete driver, he might well be out of the title race already.
Russell’s best hope of winning the title this year is the youngster Antonelli folding under pressure. Against a driver like Verstappen and Hamilton, that wouldn’t be a factor at all.
By leaving Mercedes just before the new rules kicked in, Hamilton inadvertently did Russell the biggest possible favour.
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