F1 fans name which driver is even more likely to lose their seat in 2026 than Liam Lawson

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One of the biggest talking points that’s set to emerge from the 2026 Formula 1 season is which drivers will be offered new contracts for next year, and who might be at risk of falling off the grid.

Racing Bulls are the only team that have taken the risk on bringing in a rookie this year, with Arvid Lindblad set to make his Formula 1 debut at the Australian Grand Prix.

Half of the current grid are out of contract at the end of the season, with the likes of Andrea Kimi Antonelli and Fernando Alonso both entering the last 12 months of their deals.

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However, as Red Bull and Alpine showed last season, driver swaps can be done at any point if teams don’t believe they’re getting the most out of their cars.

Liam Lawson was dropped for Yuki Tsunoda after two races, and Franco Colapinto replaced Jack Doohan ahead of racing at Imola.

After losing his Red Bull seat, Lawson will know that his long-term F1 future is far from safe, as his prospects of another promotion are very low.

However, F1 fans responding to a question from F1Oversteer’s TalkingPoints feature have suggested that one driver is even more at risk of being dropped than the 24-year-old.

READ MORE: Who is Racing Bulls F1 driver Liam Lawson? Everything you need to know

F1 fans think Franco Colapinto is the most likely driver to be dropped during the 2026 season

Fans were asked by F1Oversteer on TalkingPoints which driver is most likely to be dropped this season.

The responses were overwhelmingly split between Colapinto and Lawson, with one comment reading: ‘I still believe that Franco Colapinto brings in sponsor money. I do not see him as a F1 worthy driver. Meanwhile, the 2025 F2 champion sits and waits.’

‘Colapinto,’ was the simple response from one person, and this was followed up by an equally brief, ‘Lawson,’ to which one TalkingPoints user replied, ‘You’re dreaming, mate.’

‘I think that, unfortunately, Franco has got to be careful this year, although Alpine would be taking a risk replacing him with Paul Aron!’ suggested another fan.

Lawson’s difficulties in pre-season testing were echoed by another response, which read, ‘Not sure, could be anyone who can’t get to grips with their cars, Lawson definitely not!!’

‘He’s improving every outing, not Lindblad, quick for a rookie. Can’t be Stroll unless his dad sells up. Colapinto is also getting better,’ suggested another comment.

One fan backed up Isack Hadjar’s chances of surviving alongside Max Verstappen and said: ‘Some drivers just take more time. Hadjar will do an alright job to retain his seat at Red Bull; for me, it’s a lottery.’

However, that was countered by another TalkingPoints user who explained: ‘Hadjar will be the only one. Lawson should say bye to RB. I think he would improve in a team with less drama. Colapinto is a wildcard. Yeah!’

Finally, Colapinto’s chances were talked up by one fan who said: ‘Knowing how Alpine are switching to Mercedes power units, Colapinto should be able to perform decently this season, and get at least one point. Hadjar may be losing his seat mid-season, mostly speculation due to the Red Bull 2nd seat curse.’

READ MORE: Everything you need to know about Franco Colapinto from F1 stats to height

Who would Alpine and Racing Bulls replace Franco Colapinto and Liam Lawson with if they were dropped?

Colapinto was on a rolling contract after replacing Doohan last year, and despite Flavio Briatore denying he said he was on a race-by-race deal, he had to wait until the final few races to have his F1 status confirmed for 2026.

Briatore suggested that Alpine were deciding between Colapinto and Paul Aron last year as the Argentinian was still searching for his first point of the year, ultimately overlooking the 22-year-old.

Colapinto is ‘under the most pressure’ heading to Australia, and Aron still looks like the most likely replacement if he fails to meet expectations.

For Lawson, a far more established alternative exists for Racing Bulls if he doesn’t impress.

Tsunoda will be Red Bull and Racing Bulls’ reserve driver this year, and will be desperate to make a return to the grid with either team if the opportunity arises.