F1 experts predict the 2025 season from drivers’ and teams’ titles, biggest surprise and how Lewis Hamilton will fare at Ferrari

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It is finally time for the 2025 Formula 1 season to start, so F1 Oversteer’s expert team of writers predict the biggest storylines of the year, including who will win both titles.

For the first time since 1999, McLaren will begin the new Formula 1 season as the defending constructors’ champions. Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri took the papaya squad back to the top of the charts last term and they will head into the 2025 season as the favourites, as well.

F1 testing in Bahrain indicated that McLaren have a clear pace advantage ahead of the 2025 season with the MCL39 looking like a great evolution of their constructors’ title-winning car. Many also think Norris is the 2025 pre-season F1 title favourite after coming short last term.

Norris could not take full advantage of McLaren’s advantage over Red Bull across the second half of last term to dethrone Max Verstappen. Now, the Dutchman will hope Red Bull can hit back as Verstappen attempts to join only Michael Schumacher by winning five titles in a row.

The gloves will only come off to really show who boasts an advantage at the 2025 Australian Grand Prix on March 16, though. So, ahead of the five red lights going out in Melbourne and racing resuming, F1 Oversteer’s expert writers predict the top stories of the 2025 F1 season.

F1 experts predict the 2025 drivers’ championship as Lando Norris rivals Max Verstappen

Kyle Archer: “Rare company would await Max Verstappen if he can win another drivers’ title in 2025 and join only Michael Schumacher in going back-to-back-to-back-to-back-to-back. But, like with the Dutchman’s first title, the last year of the current regulations will be an end.

“Verstappen dethroned Lewis Hamilton at the 2021 season-ending Abu Dhabi Grand Prix as F1 staged its final race before adopting the current ground-effect regulations in 2022. Now, teams are already preparing for when F1 introduces new engine and chassis rules in 2026.

“Teams will want to turn their attention to next year as soon as they can without completely giving up on 2025. So, whoever starts this season strongly could win it all, and McLaren had the best car after F1 testing in Bahrain. Thus, Lando Norris is the 2025 drivers’ title favourite.

“While Oscar Piastri also won his first Grands Prix in 2024, the Australian is not yet an equal for Norris at McLaren. The Briton won their head-to-heads for Grand Prix results (16-8) and qualifying (20-4) with ease in 2024 and will not want to waste his chance to win a first title.”

David Comerford: “Lando Norris enters the season as the title favourite but Max Verstappen commands the ultimate respect.

“Nobody has beaten him in this generation of cars, and he’s enjoying one of the greatest peaks ever seen in F1. Remember, Norris barely outscored him during the period last year where the McLaren was the superior car.

Rory Mitchell: “Oscar Piastri is not as experienced as Lando Norris, but the Australian boasted an impressive junior formula record before he joined F1 and was the subject of a contract war between McLaren and Alpine.

“Although he struggled in qualifying compared to Norris last year, there were glimpses of brilliance in the races. Piastri’s victory in Baku when piling the pressure on Charles Leclerc shows that he has what it takes to mix it with F1’s big guns.

“What’s more, Piastri’s shown that he can handle Max Verstappen when the pair collided in Abu Dhabi – an area that Norris consistently struggled in last year and claimed he needed to ‘learn’ from for 2025.

“The fact is, Piastri already knows and I expect him to win the title if McLaren’s car is the benchmark come Melbourne.”

READ MORE: Every error that cost Lando Norris points in his failed 2024 F1 title challenge

Shay Rogers: “This may be the toughest year of Formula 1 racing to predict in the history of the sport. Form suggests Max Verstappen should win a fifth consecutive title in 2025, but it’s all out of the window in the final year of the technical regulations.

“The top four teams are going to be separated by such a small margin at some races that it’s going to come down to the man rather than machine more often.

“So, with some experience under his belt now, Lando Norris should be able to reach the top finally. It feels like it’s his time, and I don’t think Oscar Piastri is ready yet.”

Ben Evans: “The 2025 season could play out very similarly to last year and in the same way that Max Verstappen was able to open up an advantage over the first few races before the rest of the grid caught up, I think Lando Norris might do the same thing this season.

“Norris caught the eye of the paddock during testing and his long-run pace was exceptional. While the grid may converge as the year goes on, especially with changes to the front wing flexing rules arriving at the Spanish Grand Prix, the 25-year-old is in a position to open up a substantial gap before any change in the pecking order from that point onwards.”

Tyler Rowlinson: “McLaren have emerged as the clear favourite after pre-season and after learning how to battle Max Verstappen in 2024, Lando Norris should be in the prime position to become a champion. But the Brit will face competition from the other side of his garage.

“While Norris had the advantage in qualifying last year, Oscar Piastri proved more daring and aggressive in battles during the races. A prime example is Piastri’s ‘dirty’ move on Norris at Monza – showing the Australian is not afraid to fight his teammate.

“His only problem is the ‘papaya rules’, with McLaren set to continue to use their rules of engagement in 2025. But with the scores at zero, the Aussie will be keen to stamp his authority. His aggressiveness and having the freedom of no ‘papaya rules’ – at least in the early stages – will give him the upper hand and McLaren’s first drivers’ title since 2008.”

Can McLaren defend the Formula 1 constructors’ championship in the 2025 season?

Kyle Archer: “Only Ferrari have won more F1 constructors’ titles than Williams and McLaren. The Scuderia boast 16 titles to their rivals from Grove and Woking with nine each. But while McLaren lifted their first teams’ title since 1998 in 2024, Ferrari have not won it since 2008.

“Now, McLaren will bid to win back-to-back titles for the first time since they lifted four in a row from 1988 to 1991. And the odds are very much in their favour as McLaren – especially through Lando Norris – set the benchmark pace at the three-day pre-season test in Bahrain.

“McLaren have made a big front suspension change with their 2025 F1 car, having lowered the upper wishbone rear leg inboard pickup point to increase the anti-dive. The change the crew made seemed to do the trick in Bahrain, and McLaren will hope another title follows.”

David Comerford: “F1 fans think Ferrari have the best driver line-up but McLaren have the best car on the evidence of testing.

“Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri should, therefore, be able to help McLaren retain the title, something the team haven’t done since 1991 when Ayrton Senna was still racing for them.

“Though Max Verstappen may win the drivers’ title, Liam Lawson’s inexperience is likely to drag Red Bull down.”

Rory Mitchell: “McLaren have pulled off an impressive comeback in recent years, going from last to winning the constructors’ title in 18 months.

“A combination of bringing in the right people, restructuring the team and having two world-class drivers has enabled them to beat Red Bull at their own game.

“Ferrari are often too much of a soap opera to achieve a constructors’ title these days, while both Mercedes and Red Bull are in transitional periods after all those years of title success.”

READ MORE: All you need to know about McLaren F1 Team from team principal to engine

Shay Rogers: “F1 testing suggests Red Bull may be fourth-fastest team and they’re often left to run a one-man team, while Ferrari were underwhelming at testing. They may have been sandbagging but I don’t completely buy it.

“Ferrari still have a lot to prove in terms of consistent development throughout a season. It leaves McLaren and Mercedes, who have a promising rookie in Andrea Kimi Antonelli.

“His confidence will shine and while he has a lot to learn, I expect this bold approach to pay off for Mercedes. Antonelli will be better than Oscar Piastri this year and that’ll be the main difference in the constructors’ championship fight.”

Ben Evans: “McLaren impressed during pre-season and appear to have built on the success of last year’s constructors’ championship-winning car over the winter.

“Given their relative lack of success over the past 25 years, McLaren may decide to spend more time and resources on their 2025 car than their rivals – which should get them over the line and, hopefully, not compromise them too much for the beginning of the next set of regulations in 2026.”

Tyler Rowlinson: “McLaren are the clear favourites after pre-season testing and it is hard to look past them for the constructors’ title.

“Helmut Marko thinks McLaren are two to three tenths ahead of Red Bull after the Bahrain test and have an advantage on Ferrari and Mercedes. While the battle will be tense between the top four teams, the Woking outfit have the package worthy of defending their title.”

Who will be the biggest surprise among the 2025 Formula 1 grid?

Kyle Archer: “The 2025 Formula 1 grid has six full-season rookies with Liam Lawson, Oliver Bearman, Andrea Kimi Antonelli, Isack Hadjar, Jack Doohan and Gabriel Bortoleto. The FIA is not listing Lawson and Bearman as rookies given they have started 11 and three Grands Prix.

“It is also unlikely that Lawson will spring many surprises in his first season as a full-time F1 driver. Helmut Marko has stated that Red Bull see Lawson being Max Verstappen’s No2. Yet, another rookie could spring a surprise just by seeing out his first year on the grid in Doohan.

“Alpine gave Doohan his debut at the 2024 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix yet put a target on his back by signing Franco Colapinto from Williams as a reserve driver beside Paul Aron. Expectations are now rife that Alpine will replace Doohan with Colapinto, it is more just a question of when.

“Yet Doohan could yet surprise a lot of people by proving to Alpine executive adviser Flavio Briatore that he not only deserves to see out the 2025 Formula 1 season but even deserves a contract to stay in 2026. Alpine only gave Doohan a deal to replace Esteban Ocon in 2025.

“The speculation surrounding his future, plus sitting out near enough all of the 2024 season, has hidden the skill Doohan has. Yet the son of MotoGP icon Mick Doohan is a very talented racer and will aim to showcase his skills early on once F1 heads to some high-speed tracks.”

David Comerford: “Alpine showed glimpses of their pace as Pierre Gasly unleashed ‘hell’ in F1 testing. So, it won’t come as a total surprise but the Frenchman can disrupt the top eight this season.

“Gasly was already doing it at the back end of last year when he was one of the form drivers on the grid – and now he has more competitive machinery.

“The identity of his teammate by Abu Dhabi is anyone’s guess, though, amid the uncertainty around Jack Doohan’s future at Alpine.”

Rory Mitchell: “Pierre Gasly surprised everyone last year with his limited crash damage bill. And with what looks to be a competitive Alpine, he looks set to repeat the feat and finish higher up the drivers’ standings. I can see Gasly on the podium more than once this year.”

READ MORE: Alpine driver Pierre Gasly’s life outside F1 from net worth to girlfriend

Shay Rogers: “Carlos Sainz feels like an obvious pick, but the fundamentals are in place for some true success at Williams now. They’ve invested heavily in the right things such as the infrastructure in Grove and have been trending in a positive direction for a while.

“James Vowles may be one of the best team principals on the grid already and he now has a top-five driver line-up. This combines to give Sainz the environment to succeed.

“It’s important to remember that Sainz led McLaren and Ferrari from the midfield into race-winning contention, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him do the same at Williams.

“The boldest prediction I’m prepared to make is that Sainz will manage a podium in 2025 in a non-chaotic race.”

Ben Evans: “Andrea Kimi Antonelli has the almost impossible task of replacing Lewis Hamilton at Mercedes. But, based on what we’ve seen in testing, he doesn’t look worried about the challenge.

“Antonelli matched Ferrari driver Charles Leclerc’s race simulation pace in Bahrain and didn’t look worried about pushing the Mercedes to its limits on tyres he’d never used before.

“If he continues to adapt at such a fast rate, then – although Antonelli may make a few rookie errors – he may also be able to produce some spectacular results.”

Tyler Rowlinson: “This may seem odd given the Italian is driving for a top team in Mercedes, but Andrea Kimi Antonelli thinks no one expects him to win in 2025 – they may want to think twice after seeing the rookie in action in Bahrain.

“It might have been pre-season, but the 18-year-old looked at home in the W16. Antonelli’s impressive mileage in private tests will have helped him get accustomed to the team over the winter and he looks raring to go.

“Mercedes have also taken a step forward in development, which could see the teenager fight regularly for podiums and race wins. Expect Antonelli to provide a bigger challenge to George Russell than previously thought.”

Who will be the biggest disappointment among the 2025 Formula 1 grid?

Kyle Archer: “Fernando Alonso is still going well at 43 years old in search of his first Grand Prix victory since winning on home soil at the 2013 Spanish GP. But the Oviedo native faces yet another year of pain now, and Alonso has already written off 2025 after F1 testing, too.

“Aston Martin endured a torrid time in Bahrain compared to their rivals, and were miles off the top four teams last year after scoring 94 points in P5 whilst Mercedes bagged 468 in P4. The AMR25 looks to be a step sideways, at best, with Aston Martin’s 2025 F1 car a handful.”

David Comerford: “Lawrence Stroll shook his head as he left F1 testing, suggesting his team Aston Martin may have tumbled down the midfield order.

“If Aston Martin do start slowly, they’re likely to make an exceptionally early pivot to 2026 – which was always going to be their priority anyway. That could make for a hugely frustrating season for Lance Stroll and, above all, Fernando Alonso.”

Rory Mitchell: “Anything other than title success would be disappointing for Lewis Hamilton in 2025 after his move to Ferrari.

“So, that is the main reason I have put him in this category. He’ll deliver on the hype and win races for Ferrari, but the title might just be out of reach until 2026.”

READ MORE: Who is 2025 Haas driver Oliver Bearman? Everything to know

Shay Rogers: “I struggle to see the hype about Britain’s next big thing, Oliver Bearman. The new Haas driver finished an underwhelming Formula 2 campaign in 12th last season, with PREMA teammate Andrea Kimi Antonelli six places higher.

“Bearman did score points on his F1 debut with Ferrari at the 2024 Saudi Arabian Grand Prix in P7, but that car won the next race in Australia with Carlos Sainz. He also made multiple errors at the Sao Paulo Grand Prix and his most impressive performance was in Azerbaijan.

“On his day, I think he can be good, but I expect Esteban Ocon to outshine him and be the true leader at Haas this season. Whether or not Bearman makes it to 2026 is up for debate.”

Ben Evans: “Haas expected to finish bottom of the constructors’ championship last year, but surprised everyone by being seriously competitive throughout the season. They would have finished sixth in the standings were it not for Alpine’s double-podium in Sao Paulo, but their behaviour in testing has raised a few eyebrows.

“New drivers Esteban Ocon and Oliver Bearman pushed the car to its limits and – given their limited resources compared to the rest of the paddock – Haas may be forced to turn their attention towards 2026 sooner than everyone else, sacrificing some performance this year.”

Tyler Rowlinson: “Williams are a team on the rise back up to their previous glory. Carlos Sainz and Alex Albon are two great leaders – but there is concern about the latter.

“There is no denying that Albon’s impact on Williams has been outstanding, almost carrying the team on his back the last few years and dominating Nicholas Latifi and Logan Sargeant.

“However, Franco Colapinto put him under pressure and he struggled to cope with the Argentine being immediately on the pace.

“Now with Sainz next to him – a proven race winner and known for building teams up like Renault, McLaren and Ferrari – the Thai driver could meet his match in 2025.

“Williams will make progress this season but Albon will be dominated by Sainz, leaving him under threat heading into the new regulations.”

Where will Max Verstappen finish the 2025 Formula 1 drivers’ championship?

Kyle Archer: “While Max Verstappen may not win his fifth Formula 1 drivers’ championship in 2025, the Red Bull racer will still continue his streak of finishing a season in the top three for the seventh season in succession – likely even in the top two if Red Bull do not give up.

“Verstappen has not finished outside the top three in the championship since 2018. But he faces a tall order against competition from both McLaren, both Ferrari and both Mercedes drivers but not his teammate. Liam Lawson has replaced Sergio Perez to be Red Bull’s No2.

“Even Oscar Piastri admits Verstappen has an advantage with Lawson his No2 at Red Bull in 2025 while McLaren, Ferrari and possibly Mercedes all have two No1 contenders. This may prove hugely beneficial for Verstappen as long as Red Bull do not focus on 2026 too early.”

David Comerford: “Max Verstappen is still the man to beat for the Formula 1 drivers’ title in 2025. If he wins the title this year, he matches Michael Schumacher’s record of five in a row. That puts him firmly in the greatest of all time conversation.”

Rory Mitchell: “This season will be the hardest year that Max Verstappen has had to defend his championship crown, which is why I see him only making the top three.

“Both McLaren drivers will be in a class of their own at the start of the year, which will see him playing catch up. I can see a scenario in the last races whereby McLaren go for a one-two in the drivers’ championship and Verstappen tries to deny them.”

READ MORE: The best moments of Max Verstappen’s career in Formula 1

Shay Rogers: “Having Max Verstappen anywhere other than in the top three would be an insult to both his legacy and his talent.

“Even with the fourth-fastest car, he’s going to find a way to win multiple races and maybe even compete for the title if Red Bull do not give up on the development of the RB21.

“The title is going to be won and lost in an area that he hasn’t had to face much recently – battling with his rivals. The close proximity will mean that mere seconds could separate second from sixth place.

“It’s on these days that Verstappen has proven how great he is before and if he can continue to do so, it will prevent him from falling outside the top three in the standings.

“There were signs of a few past gremlins last year in battles with Lando Norris and no longer having the dominant car may bring the Max of old back in wheel-to-wheel combat. It’ll only cost him the most in the long run if he chooses to engage in anything but clean racing.”

Ben Evans: “It’s hard to argue that Max Verstappen isn’t the quickest driver on the grid right now. But the early signs suggest that Red Bull haven’t made the same strides forward as the likes of McLaren, Ferrari and Mercedes over the winter.

“While Verstappen will extract the maximum performance of the RB21, if Norris lives up to his full potential and McLaren maintain their advantage over Red Bull then the Dutchman may just miss out on matching Michael Schumacher’s consecutive championship record.”

Tyler Rowlinson: “To discount Max Verstappen in the drivers’ championship picture would be ridiculous, even if Red Bull have regressed in performance in recent months.

“Verstappen will fight for wins when his car arguably shouldn’t, but his machine over the season is what will let him down.

“The Dutchman won seven of the first 10 races in 2024. When Red Bull no longer had the fastest car, he won just two more times and grabbed six podiums in the final 14 Grands Prix.

“McLaren will have learned from fighting Verstappen last year and will be better prepared to battle in 2025. Ferrari and Mercedes will also give the 27-year-old a hard time.

“He will get the best out of his rivals at points in the season. But there is only so much the four-time champion can do when Verstappen’s car is arguably the fourth-fastest heading into Melbourne.”

Where will Lewis Hamilton finish his first Formula 1 drivers’ championship at Ferrari?

Kyle Archer: “The dust has settled on Lewis Hamilton’s move from Mercedes to Ferrari but is still the talk of the paddock before the 2025 F1 season starts at the Australian Grand Prix. He made the move in the hopes of winning an eighth drivers’ title, but 2025 is not his year.

“Hamilton will be a problem for McLaren’s Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri plus Red Bull racer Max Verstappen with Ferrari a contender for the constructors’ championship. But the Briton is likely to come up short after testing hinted Ferrari only have the third-fastest 2025 F1 car.

“Hamilton faces overcoming his car’s shortfalls, as well as one of if not the fastest qualifiers on the current grid in Charles Leclerc, to lead Ferrari’s campaign and fight for the title. He is bound to be a regular podium threat but the question remains how often he will win races.”

David Comerford: “Max Verstappen, Lando Norris and Charles Leclerc will be the top three in the Formula 1 drivers’ championship in 2025 as they did last year.

“Lewis Hamilton could be revitalised at Ferrari but, at this very moment, it would be too brave to place him above his teammate, Leclerc. It’s going to be extremely tight from fourth to seventh place, with Oscar Piastri and George Russell likely to be close behind.”

Rory Mitchell: “Ferrari’s form has been too sporadic over the last three years to comfortably predict that Lewis Hamilton will finish in the top three of the drivers’ championship.

“They can either be the team to beat (like in Monaco, Mexico City and the USA last year) or nowhere (like in Las Vegas, Singapore and Britain). I expect Charles Leclerc to beat Hamilton and at least one Mercedes driver, along with Max Verstappen and both McLaren drivers.”

READ MORE: Seven best drives of Lewis Hamilton’s Mercedes career before Ferrari move

Shay Rogers: “If Ferrari had looked more promising during pre-season testing, I would have been inclined to suggest that both drivers Lewis Hamilton and Charles Leclerc will finish the season in the top three of the drivers’ championship. But I don’t see it coming.

“George Russell may have a better car and has been better than Hamilton for the last two years. Lando Norris will finish higher and it’s likely that Max Verstappen will, too.

“I think Hamilton will do enough to just pip Leclerc at Ferrari. But if things don’t go their way in the first half of the season, the Scuderia may turn their attention to 2026 pretty quickly.”

Ben Evans: “In a season where the margins are expected to be extremely tight, Lewis Hamilton may suffer as the only leading driver who swapped teams over the winter.

“While Hamilton looks more at ease in this year’s Ferrari than in the previous few Mercedes, however long it takes for him to be completely comfortable in his new surroundings could put him on the back foot.

“I expect both McLaren drivers as well as Max Verstappen to finish ahead of him, while Charles Leclerc may win the intra-team battle this year with a much closer contest likely to arise in 2026.”

Tyler Rowlinson: “The world is eagerly anticipating Lewis Hamilton racing in red. Many are praying his stint at Ferrari will be a success. But, initially, my guess is it will be a slow start.

“It is too easy to predict Hamilton will finish ahead of Charles Leclerc. The Monegasque driver is well-established in Maranello and knows their operation inside out.

“While the seven-time champion is motivated, has already made a huge impact with his new team and will certainly fight for race wins, it is too soon after the lowest finish of his F1 career for Hamilton to win a title.

“He will beat his old team Mercedes but Hamilton will not have enough in 2025 to beat the McLarens, his teammate and Verstappen.”